WEBVTT

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Now let's discuss about the aggression.

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So let us assume that this is the of which we have in time and we have only one input variable, which

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is the education.

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And based on this education, we want to predict the income of the.

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Now, we can predict these by creating a linear regression and what linear regression suggests is that

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we will be drawing a particular line such that the line will be able to map all the values if possible.

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So just as you what lions can we create here?

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There could be a line created like this.

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There could be another nine.

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Created like this.

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And there could be another line creator.

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Like this.

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Now, each of these lines will be able to capture some of the data points, but none of the line is

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actually happening, capturing most of the data.

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So we have to find out which line will be able to capture maximum data points.

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So we will be finding the error which is present to you.

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Now let us see how will we find out if the values I correctly predicted or not?

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So for finding out if the values are predicted correctly or not, we will be dropping a perpendicular

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to each data point to find out the distance or the error value.

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So let us consider that this is the line.

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Which we have actually created for the Swedish.

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So when we are dropping the ball, when Nikolas.

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The distances will be this.

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This.

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This.

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This.

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And this.

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Now, let us compare the distances now, these instances when compared to distances from this particular

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line.

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Will be a lot more so the distances for this particular line will be larger than the earlier one.

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So let me drop distances to this particular line.

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So if we drop the distances here, the distance would be less.

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Hear the distance would be less here, the distance would be less.

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This is same.

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Now, after this point, all the distances will be more than the previous distance.

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So you can see that in comparison with these two lines, this first line actually provides a better

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result.

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So we will be creating the front lines and we will be comparing the distances between these lines.

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So how will it be creating these lines and how we will be reducing the distance is the next thing in

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my.

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So let us try to solve this and let us try to see that, how will we actually create this equation of

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this line and how will we create this model?

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So what are the different type of equations which we have, there are limited equations, quadratic

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equations, Kubic equations, so a linear equation.

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Will look something like this.

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And this equation will be something like, why is it going to be one x one plus two plus B three x three

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plus B for export and so on?

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And in the end, one constant V will be added to it.

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Because the original line of formula is Y is equal to a mixed blessing, which is the original equation

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for line where C is the.

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Intercept and M is the slope.

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Similarly, we will be creating this particular equation because here we have multiple X values, let

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us get back to the data which we have.

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So this is the data which we have, so the age amount, salary dependent sex and children will be different

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X values, that is X one, two, three, four, five.

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And the interest rate will be the value which we are predicting.

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So the equation will be some confusion multiplied with E under the age and a definition multiplied with

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amount on a double multiplied with salary under the compulsion to multiply the dependent on the condition

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multiplied by six, another coefficient multiplied by children and some of all of these.

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Should be equivalent to the value of Interest-free now out of this, the only thing which we need to

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find out is the value of the efficient because value.

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And the one, two, three values is something which we already have, so the only thing which we have

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to formulate is the value of BE1 be to be three before and so on.

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Now, while we are creating this equation, we have to make sure that the prediction, which we are

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making good predictions.

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So what are different features of a good prediction?

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So a good prediction model will give accurate results.

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So a good model will give accurate results.

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So a model which will build this particular equation will be a better model in comparison to the model

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which will give this particular equation.

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Next is the accuracy should not be limited to just one data point.

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So let us say we are looking at a particular city for which we are trying to find out how much water

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or how much food is needed in that particular.

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And similarly, we are looking for multiple cities in the country.

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So now our task is to find out the amount of food required as accurately as possible so that no specific

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city doesn't have extra food or no specific city has lesser amount of.

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So we're going to have to make sure that all the cities have sufficient amount of food available so

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that no one dies of hunger.

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We cannot do something like we predict one requirement for one particular city correctly, and the predictions

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are very wrong or very inaccurate for the other cities, because in that case, other cities, the people

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who are living in other cities will die of hunger.

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Right.

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So the predictions which we are making have to be in sync and accurate or good enough for all the data

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points or at least for the maximum number of data points.

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So now the model which we will be creating, the model which we will be creating or the predictions

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which we will be making, should be performing equally well on the testing data as on the training data.

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Now.

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As of now, we don't know what testing device and what printing device, so let us try to understand

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that a little.

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So let's take the example of preparing for examination again.

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Now for an examination we are preparing from a particular information or from a particular book.

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Now, this particular book is the invasion force material, which we have now, what happens is the

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book will have certain questions at the end of each and every chapter.

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So when we are learning from this particular book, we will be practicing on those practice questions,

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which we will be having at the end of each and every chapter.

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So when we will be doing self evaluation, while we will be training ourselves to give the exam, we

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will be self evaluating ourselves on the basis of these practice questions which are present at the

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back of the book.

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So we will be able to perform really well if we are really studying hard.

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We will be able to perform really well on the training data.

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That is, the evaluation questions or the practice questions is in the back of the book.

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So now the testing data is basically the exact exam, the exam, which we will be giving Igby after

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tomorrow, then we will have 14 questions, which will be not present in the book, but we will be based

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on the concept which are present in the book.

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So when we are learning from the data and we are learning from the information which is provided to

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us, we want to perform well on the training data or on the practice questions also.

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And we are performing good on practice questions, but we also want to perform well on the final examination

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on.

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So this is what it means, that it should perform equally well on the training data, that is a practice

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question on the testing data, which is the final evaluation, so that if this.

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A woodmore.

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Now, next thing is that a simpler model is a better model, complex models than do or would Woodfork.

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Now let's ignore what Overfitting means.

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OK, let us ignore what Overfitting feels for now.

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Five.

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Just try to understand that we want to make our model as simple as possible.

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And what complex model does we will look at in something so far?

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Now the model should give accurate results.

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The accuracy should not be limited to just one data point.

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It should perform equally well on the testing data as on the training data.

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And a simpler model is better model than the complex model.

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Now, let us see what this regression so did not what we have discussed is that regression is when we

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are trying to predict the continuous value.

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So regression takes a group of random variables to be predicting why?

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I'm trying to find a mathematical relationship between them.

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So this relationship is typically in the form of a straight line that best approximates all the individual

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data points.

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So what this means is that I have certain data, I have certain data, the gardening, education and

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income, so I want to set up a relationship between the education and the income of the person so that

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for when the next time someone tells me that this is their education, then I can easily guess what

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their income would be.

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So what is needed aggression, linear regression is used for continued static good values like Ege,

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sales interest, industry or house prices.

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So we can let us see if we can have data related to the number of bedrooms, the number of bathrooms,

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the the floor of the building and the details, the location of the building, and based on that, we

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will try to find out what is what should be the price of the house.

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Similarly, we can get details about a person's height and weight and try to predict that age.

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So these are different things which we can predict.

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So when we are trying to predict a continuous value, then it is called the linear regression from.

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Now, what is the expectation, the expectation is too long, the relationship between the independent

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input data and the dependent on good values, the independent input data is the legacy for the for the

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loan problem.

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The independent data could be the age of the person, the gender of the person, the amount which the

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user is requesting the loan for the number of dependents.

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So all of these will be the.

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Independent input data and independent target value will be the interest rate, which we are trying

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to predict.

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Now for finding out this will calculate the slope and the positions to create a linear equation which

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could align do given data property.

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So we want to create a linear equation.

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So the equation consists of the slope and the.

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Coefficients of the values.

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So that is what we are trying to predict here.

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And in this entire thing, we want to minimize the cost.

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Now, let us try to ask you, what exactly is a predictive word like we have discussed about what the

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question is?

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But our main concern here is to know what caused this.

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We want to understand what the cost is.

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So how will we understand what is cost?

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So to understand the cost, we have to understand what our predictive models.

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So for us, a predictive model is just like the application or just like a box in which we provide our

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training data.

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So we will provide the training data, which is the independent input data and the dependent that it

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values, and we will provide it to this box, which we have, and then this box will try to decrypt

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the relationship between these independent, independent variables.

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So it will try to establish a relationship between this and a group that I do for you to function internally

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so that it will apply that function or it will apply that equation on top of these X values.

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And using this equation, it will be able to find out the Vivan.

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So when we are planning the model or when we are letting the machine learn from the data, we are basically

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providing the input data and the output data, the input X values and the output values to the machine.

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And the machine will try to find old patterns in the relationship from the state of digitize and create

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the equation in.

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And then once this equation has been created, then what happens is whenever I have any of the problem

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in hand, whenever I have any other input data, again, I can just provide this input data to the machine

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and it will apply the formula on this data and automatically provide me the output value as a prediction.

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Now, when it is providing me this output data is a prediction, this output data, which is very hard

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to value, will not be exactly the same as the value which is expected.

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OK, the value which we have, the value which we are predicting will not be.

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Exactly the same as the value which is in the real life scenario.

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So what do we do now, this gap, this difference between the original value and what we have predicted?

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So, for example, we are trying to predict the height of a person.

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And so when we are creating a model, we will have given some detail about the person and the height

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of the person to the model.

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So now the model will try to analyze the characteristics of the person and it will find try to find

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out the relationship between the characteristics and the height of the person.

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So it will try to do that by creating information internally.

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Now, while it is creating the equation internally, it means that I do think the equation to the data,

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which it already has.

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So it will try to check for the data again.

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So it will at one moment it will learn from the data.

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At one moment it will learn from this data on this value of the interest rate, and later it will try

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to predict this increased interest rate.

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So it will try to practice again.

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You remember the example for the book, so it will try to evaluate itself based on the questions on

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the back of the chapter.

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So this jocking from the back of the job, though, so we try to find out what is the exact sort of

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the question and what answer has the machine given to us and the difference between the exact answer,

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the actual answer and the answer, which the machine has given, is called the error.

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It is the editor value between the actual design and what the machine has predicted.

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And when we add on the edit for all the observations, because we will not have just one observation

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rate, we will not have just one practice question, there will be multiple practice questions.

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So then we will be evaluating on all the practice questions, the added value for all the questions

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will be summed up, and that is the cost of the model.

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That is called the cost of the model, which is the sum of all the ED films and.

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Reveals just one particular error, though, I guess, is to reduce the entire cost that invasion cost

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might reduce by reducing land value also or by a cumulative reduction in all the edibles.

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So our target is to reduce the cumulative Edwardo instead of reducing the error for just one.

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But because if we are reducing the error for just one value in that case, the for other values might

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increase.

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So we don't want that.

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We want to reduce the overall.

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So let us see, so we have this right is equal to a forfeit, so we have different X values.

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So out of those different X values, we want to find out a function which we give right as the output.

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So this function is actually the linear equation which we will be forming.

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So the equation will be doubled plus the next one plus B, that extra plus Lusby, that's been too three

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plus wait for export and so on.

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So why is actually that target value, for example, it is the price of the flight ticket or height

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of the person or the interest rate, which we are trying to find out, which is the fundamental value.

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I'm the one extra extra export, these are the independent values or the features or the attribute,

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which is the values which we provide so that the relationship between these values and this value can

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be found.

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So what are these values?

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These values could be season or decision destination, the nearest holiday date.

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So these kind of events which actually impact the value of the target value.

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And when we are having the training, they originally Devinder X values are already present with us.

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So we already know what the V and X values are, hence the lion X value constant.

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And then we try to say to various be the values we want to bring, bring the predictions closer to the

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actual value.

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Now, the value, which we predict is very.

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So when we subtract Vizag from the actual value, we get the added value.

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So we have sold in value, which we have predicted and subtracted from the actual value.

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And this is all the added value.

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So in this equation, we already know what is we already know what makes one extra extra is we only

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need to find out the be done all be done.

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That will be that revalues.

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So what is the process, the process will be to convert all the variables into numerical, whether they

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are or the that they are categorically that we will have to convert all these variables into numerical.

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And after that, the categorical variables should be converted into that many variables.

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We have to remove the outliers in the data.

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And in case there are any missing values, we will have to imbue those basic values by.

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Placing the mean value or the median value in the people?

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Once we have done this, the transformations made to bringing data should also reflect in the testing

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data.

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So whatever transformation we will be doing, all the training data, the same information we will be

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doing all the testing, the.

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Because the machine does not really know what the interest rate is or what the age of a person is,

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the machine will not understand what the machine will only understand what the numbers are.

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So it will simply apply the same operations on the numbers which see sees in the training data, all

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the lines which it sees in the testing data.

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So that is the reason why the transformation's, which are made in the training data, should be made

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in the testing data so that the formula which the machine has created should be applicable on both the

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six.

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Metrics are the types of measures which are used to evaluate the more so different type of things,

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that might mean square error and the mean absolute.

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So you mean square?

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And it is doing that would also mean squared error.

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I mean, of the absolute is.

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And why have the applied, the squared and the absolute value.

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This is because there is no detection in the.

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We will understand this in a while, but for now there is no specific direction in the error.

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That is why we use one square and the mean absolute and the goodness of the predictions would depend

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on the scale of the target values.

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So if we are trying to predict how good the values, how how would our predictions.

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So that is not something which will be decided on our own basis, but it will be decided on the scale

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of the data.

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So let's say we are walking with some chemicals, we are working in a chemical industry and we have

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to create some products based on that.

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So when we are working on a chemical industry and we are creating a particular kind of company or some

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specific kind of chemical.

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So in that case, even a small millimeter or small animal of the chemical can change the composition

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of what we think is right when we are looking in a legacy soil the packaging industry, so that if we

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are dealing with gallons or we are dealing with tons of salt, then small milligram of salt will not

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make a difference.

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So you see, it is depending on the target value.

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What exactly are you dealing with?

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The scale of the production will change.

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So if the production value is off by, what, even one million, the chemical industry, it will cause

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a lot of issues.

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But if the prediction is off five, five, five grams or 10 grams in the packaging industry, then it

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will not make much difference.

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So this is what witness prediction?

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So now let's say we have the actual price as a thousand nine eighty nine fifty one thousand twenty one

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thousand fifty, and we have predicted the prices using the formula.

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And these are the predicted prices, which we have.

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Now, these predicted prices, you can see the difference between this is the difference between diesel

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will be.

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Here, the differences here.

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The differences mistake here, the difference is minus Hundert.

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So now if I have these errors, if I add these errors, the sum comes out to be only 10.

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But that does not mean that the issue is of only the.

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The editing is actually of 371, but because these negative signs are being canceled out, the edited

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out the week, that this is the reason why they need to consider the absolute leader, the absolute

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edit will actually keep in consideration all the added values, whether it is a negative or positive

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it.

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So the main focus and predictive analysis is to reduce the overall.

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Not what is the overall rate of the overall and it is VITAC.

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This is the revenue which is generated from the function which we have applied, so the added value

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will be via minus by half and the sum of all the other values will be the cost of the.

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Model, which we have done.

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Now, us have a look at this, so this is the input value.

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This is the model which we have generated, so this input value of input into the machine learning model

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should have already should have generated value, but because our model is not perfect, so it will

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generate a value.

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Right.

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So this is the actual output and this is the predicted.

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This is what we have predicted.

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So the added value will be the actual value.

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And predicted values difference, so we will find out the difference between the value and the actual

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value, and that is the added value.

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And then we will add these added values after applying the absolute function or by squaring these values

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so that the clients do not actually cancel out the devil values.

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So here we have a block.

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This plot is between height and weight, so you can see there is a positive relationship between height

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and weight, so as the height increases, the breathing freezes.

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So we have the situation of like.

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Between height and weight.

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And then there the line intercepts that Y-axis is called the intercept.

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And the scale of the equation is change of five divided by the changing X.

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This is called the slope of the equation.

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So the equation will be very easy, equal to.

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The school into X plus that B double, so this is the creation of the line, which we have, that is

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why is equal to a mixed blessing where M is the slope, X is the X value, and C is the intercept where

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the point intercept the Y axis.

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In the next section, we will discuss about the cost and the function.
